Ocean Rates Were Supposed to Ease After Peak Season. Instead, Asia-U.S. Prices Are Staying High.

Late-September was supposed to bring at least some relief to trans-Pacific container buyers. Instead, the latest market readings show Asia-U.S. freight rates plateauing at unusually high levels, not falling back in the way many importers typically expect after the peak-season climb.

On September 17, Drewry’s World Container Index put Shanghai–New York spot pricing at $10,394 per 40-foot container, up 7% week over week, while Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 5% to $7,712 per 40-foot container. A day later, Xeneta’s weekly market update, published September 18 via AJOT, showed its market-average spot rate from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast at $11,259 per FEU and to the U.S. West Coast at $7,960 per FEU as of September 17. Trade reporting from The Loadstar and Inbound Logistics points to the same conclusion: the market may have stopped accelerating at summer pace, but it has not meaningfully eased.

That distinction matters. A plateau near $8,000 to the West Coast and above $10,000 to the East Coast is not normalization. It is a late-Q3 signal that elevated transportation cost and reliability risk are extending into October planning.

The key change: the problem is no longer the spike, but the staying power

CAP previously covered the summer rate surge as a story about tightening capacity and disruption. The new development in mid-September is that expected post-peak relief has not materialized.

Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said in the September 18 market update that spot rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast were up 324% and 325%, respectively, from pre-Hormuz-crisis levels at the end of February. He added that East Coast rates were only 11.2% below the all-time high set during the COVID-era disruption, while West Coast rates were 17.9% below their pandemic peak. In Sand’s words, “If a freight rate record is broken, it is most likely to occur on the trade into US East Coast,” a notable statement for a market that is usually expected to cool by this point in the year.

The Drewry and Xeneta figures are not identical because they use different methodologies and lane definitions, but they broadly confirm the same market structure: East Coast pricing has moved into five-figure territory on major benchmarks, and West Coast pricing remains far above seasonal norms. That makes the current pause in upward momentum less important than the absolute level at which rates are holding.

Why rates are staying elevated

Capacity discipline is still working

The clearest reason the market has not loosened is that carriers continue to manage effective supply tightly even when nominal fleet capacity looks ample.

Drewry said on September 11 that across the major east-west trades, 79 blank sailings were expected between week 38 (September 14-20) and week 42 (October 12-18) out of 721 planned sailings, an 11% cancellation rate. More importantly for U.S.-bound importers, Drewry said disruptions were concentrated on the trans-Pacific eastbound trade, which accounted for 52% of those cancellations. Drewry also said announced blank sailings for weeks 38-41 had jumped nearly 56% in one week, from 39 to 70, ahead of Golden Week-related adjustments.

That does not mean a wholesale collapse in service. It does mean carriers still have enough control over departures to prevent a normal post-peak release of capacity.

Disruption is reducing effective capacity even where ships are available

The market is also being propped up by operational friction. Xeneta’s August 2026 Schedule Reliability Scorecard, published September 17, said global on-time arrivals fell to 29%, with average delay worsening from 4.2 days in July to 5.1 days in August. Xeneta said vessels piled up at Chinese anchorages in August are now translating into berth-arrival delays in North America and Europe in September.

That matters because freight markets tighten when the same ships take longer to complete rotations. Capacity on paper is not the same as capacity that can be relied on for a firm sailing window, transshipment connection, or inland handoff.

Xeneta also warned that back-to-back Chinese factory shutdowns for the Mid-Autumn Festival (September 25-27) and Golden Week (October 1-7) were compressing bookings into the preceding weeks. In practical terms, that has kept late-September demand concentrated even as many buyers were expecting the market to soften.

Corridor-specific dynamics are stronger than the global headline

This is not a simple story of ocean freight inflation everywhere.

Drewry’s September 17 update said the overall World Container Index rose just 1% week over week to $4,500 per 40-foot container, but that gain was driven by the trans-Pacific. The same update showed Shanghai–New York up 7% and Shanghai–Los Angeles up 5%, while separate trade reporting has described Asia-Europe rates as weakening. The divergence was also highlighted earlier in the month by Freightos’ September global outlook and subsequent market coverage from The Loadstar.

That difference matters operationally. It suggests carriers are still finding enough pricing power on Asia-U.S. lanes to keep capacity disciplined there, even as conditions on Asia-Europe are becoming softer.

Are Panama and Red Sea disruptions still part of the story?

Yes, but more as background pressure than as the sole explanation.

On the Panama side, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said on September 9 that vessel delays tied to bad weather in China and rerouting away from the Panama Canal amid potential drought conditions had contributed to the extended import peak. The Panama Canal Authority said on September 8 it would maintain the current 14.63-meter (48.0-foot) tropical fresh water draft limit for Neopanamax transits rather than move to a deeper draft, underscoring that water constraints had not fully disappeared.

On the Red Sea side, the picture is more mixed. Freightos said on September 15 that Red Sea transits were accelerating on some trades, especially Asia-Europe, but it also noted that trans-Pacific rates remained at peak levels because demand strength and Far East congestion were keeping pressure on spot prices. Xeneta has likewise noted that any recovery is uneven and that Asia–North America remains at zero Suez transits entirely in its current Red Sea recovery analysis.

In other words, the late-September trans-Pacific squeeze is not mainly a story about vessels suddenly shifting back through Suez and flooding the U.S. market with capacity. If anything, the more immediate drivers appear to be carrier supply management, Far East congestion, compressed pre-holiday booking, and still-buoyant U.S.-bound import demand.

Import demand is still giving carriers room to hold the line

One reason elevated rates have persisted is that cargo volumes have not rolled over decisively.

NRF’s September 9 Global Port Tracker release projected September 2026 U.S. imports at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year over year and slightly above July, which would make September the busiest month of the year. Jonathan Gold of NRF said, “We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case.” Hackett Associates added that imports had remained buoyant despite tariff increases, inflation, and higher fuel prices.

The Loadstar reported on September 18 that analysis presented during Cargo Trans’ latest FreightTea webinar also pointed to September U.S. imports of roughly 2.3 million TEU, about 10% above the same month last year.

That does not necessarily imply runaway demand. But it does help explain why carriers have not had to chase cargo by cutting rates aggressively.

What the current plateau means in practice

Budget pressure is now extending into Q4

For importers, the most immediate implication is financial: a market that stays high into late September changes the baseline for October bookings. The issue is not just whether another GRI sticks. It is that transportation teams may need to budget around an East Coast spot environment still above $10,000 per FEU rather than assume a rapid descent after peak season.

Rolled-cargo and inland execution risk remain live issues

When blank sailings rise and schedule reliability weakens, the problem is not confined to ocean spend. It also affects booking confidence, transload planning, drayage appointment timing, chassis turns, and domestic trucking coordination. A shipment that misses its intended sailing or arrives several days off schedule can create expensive downstream variability even if the nominal base ocean rate is known.

That is especially true for freight moving inland from East Coast gateways, where timing assumptions around rail connections, warehouse labor, and truck appointments become harder to hold when vessel arrival windows remain unstable.

East Coast versus West Coast routing deserves another look

With East Coast benchmarks still notably above West Coast levels, routing decisions deserve fresh scrutiny. Drewry’s September 17 numbers showed roughly a $2,682 per 40-foot container spread between Shanghai–New York and Shanghai–Los Angeles. Xeneta’s September 17 market averages showed an even wider $3,299 per FEU spread between Far East–U.S. East Coast and Far East–U.S. West Coast.

That does not make a West Coast pivot automatically cheaper once inland transport, inventory position, and service reliability are included. But it does mean routing math that looked settled earlier in the summer may need to be recalculated.

What to watch next

1. Whether early-October cargo produces one more rate push

Xeneta expects one more freight-rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of Golden Week closures. If that happens, the current plateau may prove to be only a pause before one final peak-season squeeze.

2. Whether blank sailings remain elevated after the holiday shutdown

The more important medium-term signal will be what carriers do with capacity in the weeks after Golden Week. If blanked sailings stay high, relief could be delayed further even if demand cools.

3. Whether schedule reliability improves fast enough to loosen the market

A meaningful rate retreat would likely require not just softer demand but better network fluidity. As long as berth delays, missed windows, and disrupted rotations keep vessels and equipment out of position, effective capacity will stay tighter than fleet headlines suggest.

For CAP Logistics readers, the practical takeaway is straightforward: do not mistake a pause in rate escalation for normal market relief. Late-September conditions still argue for tighter booking discipline, closer vendor communication, renewed East Coast-versus-West Coast routing analysis, and contingency budgeting for elevated ocean and inland execution costs into October.